If you’re like me, you’re really excited about the U.S. Presidential race. And it’s not just to find out who wins, it’s the path to get there. The journey beats the destination, right?
Distinguished, incredibly accomplished orators present different but equally compelling visions of a bright future, and we’re inspired by their statesmanship and brilliant solutions to our most vexing problems.
But this season is special, because there are your run-of-the-mill “distinguished” candidates, and then there’s an amazing, fantastic, fantastically amazing one. There’s a bunch of reasonably bright girls and guys, and then there’s one who can claim, with conviction, “I’m, like, a really smart person.”
Today, things get real, and we turn to Iowa, first out of the gate, to see who’s going to win the caucus there. We’ve got a bunch of questions on our minds, among them, “Where is Iowa?” and “What’s a caucus?”
But as much as I love Iowans and New Hampshiremen and all of the other folks lining up to be heard, I really just want to know: what is the probability of Donald Trump becoming the next President of the United States?
Seems like a simple question, but one the media, and our political process, doesn’t seem ready to answer. The media will drop us a little morsel every so often, telling us how hypotheticals like “Clinton v. Trump” and “Clinton v. Cruz” would play out, but they won’t give us a straight answer. Please, sirs, we just want America to be great again. We don’t want your hypotheticals, we just want odds.
In a sad and ironic twist, we have to turn to London to get these odds – yet another example of how the failed policies of a bunch of losers have outsourced our jobs overseas. Countless UK bookmakers will happily allow you to wager on who will be the next U.S. President, and those odds, backed by real money bets, may offer the best glimpse of the current chances for each candidate.
Since I’m partial to tradition, I went to one of the oldest bookmakers whose name I actually recognized: Ladbrokes. Here are their current odds.
So right now, the money says Clinton is the favorite to win at a ~52% chance. Trump is trailing far behind at 25% (to get the probability, put the odds of winning over the total chances implied – so for Trump, it’s 1 / (1+3) = 25%).
What’s really interesting is how these odds change over time. Just last week, Trump was 10:3 (~23%) and the week prior 4:1 (20%). His fantastic, amazing, opulent campaign, clad in only the finest Corinthian leather, is gaining!
I Want to be a Winner, Not a Loser
All jokes aside, the Presidential election is important and will ultimately have an influence on my pocketbook. But I don’t want to just sit around and wait to see what happens. That’s for losers. I want to profit!
So how can I make money off of the election? Here’s a play: bet big money against a Trump win and then set up a south Texas wall materials supply company, just in case. That is what finance types like to call a “hedge”.
We’ll revisit these odds often during the election season, because seeing how they move over time will make this journey a little more understandable and entertaining. Grab your popcorn, because the fun’s just begun!
If you were able to place a bet today, what would you choose? If you’re ready to put your imaginary money where your mouth is, let me know in the comments. And feel free to visit Ladbrokes to see a huge menu of interesting election odds.
Trump versus Clinton and all of the other “losers” is fun to think about, but our attention should really be focused on comparing Trump to someone of equal caliber: President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho. Thank goodness someone’s way ahead of us.