2021 Stock Picking Contest: 1H Results

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It’s been a great year (so far) for investors, and the first half results of our 2021 stock picking contest show exactly that.

(It hasn’t been as good a year for me for timely blog posts, so I’ll have to take it easy today to avoid cramps and muscle pulls.)

After previous dalliances with a complex contest trading platform, 2021’s contest got back to basics: pick a single stock you thought would outperform all others and bring you the glory that only an ABL stock-picking contest can. But there was a catch: your selection had to be a stock you actually owned! 

So as you scan the results below, consider the real-life fortunes that are being made and lost by our plucky contestants. That’s right. Playtime is over. S*** just got real. Insert your own favorite cliché.

While my own results bring me great pleasure, it wouldn’t be an ABL stock picking contest if I wasn’t wrong about something. I gently mocked DaMaaster aka Moneymaaster aka Jordan Maas and the “cutting edge business model” of his Western Forest Products pick. Turns out, forest products are hotter than iPhones right now, and that leaves him comfortably on top of our leaderboard.

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Many thanks to Odysseus for pulling together the spreadsheet to track the entrants – I believe it’s working perfectly and is updated for all dividends through June 30. If anything is wrong with the results, let me know – we’ll blame Odysseus for any errors, but they’re probably my fault.

I’ll invite any entrants to defend their picks below, and since this is real money you can also tell us your grand plans for your winnings (except Odysseus, natch). Maybe daMaaster will try to drink all of the whisky in Winnipeg. Maybe the Dividend Investor has his eye on a king-sized candy bar.

I picked Carnival Cruise Line because it felt like one of the least ridiculously valued stocks in my portfolio at the year’s start. But my single-sentence investment thesis stretches back to my irl acquisition in March 2020, when I said, “I think it’s not going to go bankrupt…” Since I hold it in a tax-deferred account, my plans for my winnings are to buy Legos or something for my grandkids in like 20 years. Super exciting stuff.

Thanks to everyone for playing, and good luck with the back half of the year!

4 thoughts on “2021 Stock Picking Contest: 1H Results”

  1. James Rankin

    I’m still hopeful I’ll pull ahead, but I applaud the WEF pick. I’m a former investor there!

    Thanks for the update, and I’m looking forward to more blog posts in general!

    ~James

    1. You’re right in the thick of things – perfectly posed for a second half surge and podium finish! Surely WEF will come back to earth as things stabilize, but I’ve got to tip my hat to Jordan for now.

      Thanks for the note and hopefully I’ll get the posts rolling!

  2. Hi Paul,

    Nice to have you back to blogging. From my side, the last months had been quite slow as well. I guess that as the weather gets better I tend to do things outside instead of being at home writing for the blog. Or maybe is just the boost that the new year provides that keeps me writing for a couple of months.

    I (fortunately) can not remember the last time I was in the last position in some list/content. It is not a good feeling. In the past years, my result in your contest was better than the IRL; this year is the opposite, thankfully.

    I picked ABNB because I thought that with the vaccines people would be back to travel and the stock would be impacted by that. Looks like indeed the people get back to travel but no positive impact on the stock price 🙁

    Just checked now and the gap to the second-worst performance only increased. I do not think I’ll be able to fill the gap until the end of the year.

    All the best.

  3. Thank you for the update Paul! You know we are still in a bull market when 11 out of the 12 stock picks are in the green. Best of luck to the other contestants – I’m excited to see how the rest of the year turns out!

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